ࡱ> |q{}wy{Xef  !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{}~Root Entryb.@p`NrPerfectOffice_MAIN&PerfectOffice_OBJECTS,rrSummaryInformation(  Oh+'Oh+'0 l  valued custoemr,SC:\Program Files\Corel\WordPerfect Office 2000\Programs\Masters\color\default.mstvalued custoemr15kground Blank TitleBulleted ListTextOrg ChartData ChartCombinationWPCT} -3'XXXXKKKK5/ @1 'Q; ? ///333???OOO___fffooof1?O/_??ߟ߿c3f3&f3?LUWPC ~ &&&&&>|"XXXX'3XXXX3' > t#^  Q^ m3WPC 2  I  .3  ....2  1  .3  ResultsKey((2  I  .3  SectionI.....2  1  .3  HeavyRainfallForecastExercise..2  A  .3  TheexerciseactuallycoveredtheOctober31-November1st,1998period,includinganeventknownasthe HalloweenFlood.Excessiverainfallfellacrosssouth-centralKS,asillustratedonthenextslide.' '2  I  .3  24hrrainfall..2  A  .3  Theimagetotherightisaplotof24hrrainfall,endingat12z11/1/98...2  A  .3  ..2  A  .3  Areasthathad2+and4+ofrainareshownwithyellowcontours(that(includereports&88Destimates)...2  A  .3  ..2  A  .3  Theaccuracyoftheisolated8"amountincentralOKissuspect.((2  I  .3  CluesLeadingtothisEvent....2  1  .3  FromtheEtaSolution..2  A  .3  Strong,persistentupperdivergenceoverKS...2  A  .3  Frontogeneticboundaryaround850mbfocusingpersistentlow-levelconvergence,beneaththeupperdivergence...2  A  .3  Despitelackofinstability,destabilization(asshownbyShowalterIndexplot)sufficientto maximizetheresponsetotheforcing...2  A  .3  IsentropicplotsshowedpersistentliftfocusedovernorthernOKandsouthernKS.'   '2  I  .3  RainfallforEvent..2  A  .3  WhilethewidespreadsignificantrainfallovercentralandsouthernKSoccurredgivenlargescale,persistentmoistureinflowandstrongisentropiclift,thebandofheaviestrainfall(inthepurpleandyellowcolors)appearedtocoincidewithabandoflow-levelfrontogeneticforcingbeneathstrongupperleveldivergence.'   '2  I  .3  850mbreview..2  A  .3  Notehowthebandofveryheavyrainfall(shownonpreviousslide)coincideswith850mbthermalgradient(andtheta-egradient),ratherthantheaxisofhighesttheta-e.'  '2  I  .3  SurfaceReview..2  A  .3  Surfacefieldsweremisleading,astheywerenotakeyfactorinthisevent.Despitethelackofsurface-basedCAPEoversouthernKS,elevatedinstabilitywassufficientforconvection.Also,theaxisofheavyrainfallcoincidedwithan850mbboundary,ratherthananear-surfaceboundary...2  A  .3  ##2  I  .3  SectionII.FloodWarningExercise..2  A  .3  Asyoumayhaveguessed,thefloodeventwasthesameoneasinSectionI...theHalloweenFloodof1998insouthernKansas.##2  I  .3  ResponsestoQuestions..2  A  .3  Thefollowingwerethedesiredresponsestothequestionsinthisexercise:..2  A  .3  ..2  A  .3  #1:Noproductneeded(nofloodingreported),thoughanUrban/SmallStreamFloodAdvisorywouldhavebeenokay...2  A  .3  #2:Urban/SmallStreamFloodAdvisory(asrainfalltotalsweregettingclosetoFFG.AFlashFloodWarningcouldnotberuledout(andwouldturnouttobeanexcellentwarningwithleadtime...see#3)...2  A  .3  #3:Bythispoint,aFlashFloodWarningisnecessary.SignificantstreetfloodingisoccurringinWichita,andsmallstreamfloodingislikelyinoutlyingareas.##2  I  .3  ResponsestoQuestions..2  A  .3  #4:Whileaflashfloodwarningcertainlyseemsappropriate,wearegettingtothepointwherethismayendupbeingaprolongedfloodevent.Assuch,thewarningmayneedtobeextendedintheformofaFloodWarning...2  A  .3  #5:Whilethereisnocertainanswerhere,itispossibleweareseeingthereflectionofafrontogeneticcirculationoversouth-centralKS...certainlyaninterestingfeatureonradar...2  A  .3  #6:FloodWarningshouldbecontinuedassmallstreamsarelikelyoutoftheirbanks. 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" " ! 1 `3' " #P U!P ! 1]@3 & X&@ X&a & 1 33& [$ & & [$ 1 `3' & X&a $a [$ 1]@3 ^) )@ )r ^)" 1 33& ' ^) ^)" '" 1 `3' ^)" )r (r '" 1]@3 , -@ - ,1 33&  + , , +1 `3' ,- [+  ++%13 ! !, .13 # >#O, \AZ"Arial RegularO        @  1stQtr.13 % %, .13 S#&O, \AZ"Arial RegularO        @  2ndQtr.13 _( _(, .13 &)O, \AZ"Arial RegularO        @  3rdQtr.13 + +, .13 !*L-O, \AZ"Arial RegularO        @  4thQtr.13  i .13 }, 4 O, \AZ"Arial RegularO        @  0.13  i .13 M U O, \AZ"Arial RegularO        @  20.13  i .13 n vO, \AZ"Arial RegularO        @  40.13  +i+.13 O, \AZ"Arial RegularO        @  60.13  MiM.13 O, \AZ"Arial RegularO        @  80.13  nin.13 Ð^O, \AZ"Arial RegularO        @  100 0 ̐ ,n.+%19׿33& Đ 6 n!n!6.+%13 Ő*#6%>O, \AZ"Arial RegularO        @  North.+%133& Ɛt'6t'n(n(6.+%13 ǐ)6,>O, \AZ"Arial RegularO        @  South.+%1ɒ33& Ȑ  !!.+%13 ɐ*#%O, \AZ"Arial RegularO        @  East.+%1 33& ʐt't'((.+%13 ː),O, \AZ"Arial RegularO        @  Westx{! '.z?/FM:U\vd kt #{q \ $ *WPCXX81%XX81%Z3'XXXX,,,,9H("Y*20220C xx, \AZ"Arial Regular +##C xx, \AZ"Arial Regular +##C xx, \AZ"Arial Regular +##C xx, \AZ"Arial Regular +##C xx, \AZ"Arial Regular +##C xx, \AZ"Arial Regular +##)?  9׿aQ 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ f" dddddd$   Y20-)*+%#'153# e|/O, \AZ"Arial RegularOxxx     #   @#  Q QO, \AZ"Arial RegularOxxxResultsKeyWPCXX81%XX81%3'XXXX,,,,9H("&u /"2u /"C @@, \AZ"Arial Regular +YC xx, \AZ"Arial Regular +#C , \AZ"Arial Regular +#C , \AZ"Arial Regular +#C , \AZ"Arial Regular +#C , \AZ"Arial Regular +#)?  Z9׿aQ 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ f" dddddd$   u /"-)*+%'153Y + :/O, \AZ"Arial RegularO        @Y  Q QO, \AZ"Arial RegularO@@@TheexerciseactuallycoveredtheOctober31-November1st,1998period,includinganeventknownasthe HalloweenFlood.Excessiverainfallfellacrosssouth-centralKS,asillustratedonthenextslide.WPCXX81%XX81%3'XXXX,,,,9H("20R/#2R/#C , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LYC , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LYC , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LYC , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LYC , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LYC , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LY)?  9׿aQ 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ f" dddddd$   R/#%`L e: /#O, \AZ"Arial RegularO     `L   @Y  Q QO, \AZ"Arial RegularO SectionI..+%19׿3aQ `fR// R WPCXX81%XX81%3'XXXX,,,,9H("=/2/C , \AZ"Arial Regular +##C , \AZ"Arial Regular +##C , \AZ"Arial Regular +##C , \AZ"Arial Regular +##C , \AZ"Arial Regular +##C , \AZ"Arial Regular +##)?  9׿aQ 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ f" dddddd$   /.+%#13# 5F/O, \AZ"Arial RegularO     #   @#  Q QO, \AZ"Arial RegularOHeavyRainfallForecastExerciseWPC XX81%XX81%(3'XXXX,,,,9""pt+2t+C , \AZ"Arial Regular +YC , \AZ"Arial Regular +#C , \AZ"Arial Regular +#C , \AZ"Arial Regular +#C , \AZ"Arial Regular +#C , \AZ"Arial Regular +#)?  Z9׿aQ 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ f" dddddd$  "t+.)*+%'13Y !+ O, \AZ"Arial RegularO        @Y  Q QO, \AZ"Arial RegularOTheimagetotherightisaplotof24hrrainfall,endingat12z11/1/98.f  O, \AZ"Arial RegularOf  O, \AZ"Arial RegularOAreasthathad2+and4+ofrainareshownwithyellowcontours(that(includereports&88Destimates).f  O, \AZ"Arial RegularOf  O, \AZ"Arial RegularOTheaccuracyoftheisolated8"amountincentralOKissuspect.WPCXX81%XX81%(3'XXXX,,,,9 %/"2/"C , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LYC , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LYC , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LYC , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LYC , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LYC , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LY)?  9׿aQ 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ f" dddddd$   %/"%`L #kI/?"O, \AZ"Arial RegularO     `L   @Y  Q QO, \AZ"Arial RegularO 24hrrainfall.+%19׿3aQ `$//88WPCXX81%XX81%3'XXXX,,,,9"&tl/Btl/C xx, \AZ"Arial Regular +ނC xx, \AZ"Arial Regular +#C , \AZ"Arial Regular +#C , \AZ"Arial Regular +#C , \AZ"Arial Regular +#C , \AZ"Arial Regular +#9/!!!!!!  Z9׿aQ 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ f" dddddd$   tl/-.)*+%'153 *l9/+ O, \AZ"Arial RegularO        @a /!!!!!!aO, \AZ"Arial RegularOxxx        @ނ        @  /  O, \AZ"Arial RegularOxxx        @ނ0M..Strong,persistentupperdivergenceoverKS.fO, \AZ"Arial RegularOxxx        @  /  O, \AZ"Arial RegularOxxx        @ނ0M..Frontogeneticboundaryaround850mbfocusingpersistentlow-levelconvergence,beneaththeupperdivergence.fO, \AZ"Arial RegularOxxx        @  /  O, \AZ"Arial RegularOxxx        @ނ0M..Despitelackofinstability,destabilization(asshownbyShowalterIndexplot)sufficientto maximizetheresponsetotheforcing.fO, \AZ"Arial RegularOxxx        @  /  O, \AZ"Arial RegularOxxx        @ނ0M..IsentropicplotsshowedpersistentliftfocusedovernorthernOKandsouthernKS.WPC-XX81%XX81%3'XXXX,,,,9"20R/#2R/#C , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LYC , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LYC , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LYC , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LYC , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LYC , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LY)?  9׿aQ 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ f" dddddd$   R/#.%`L13Y e: /#O, \AZ"Arial RegularO     `L   @Y  Q QO, \AZ"Arial RegularO CluesLeadingtothisEvent.+%19׿3aQ `fR// R WPCXX81%XX81%3'XXXX,,,,9"=/2/C , \AZ"Arial Regular +##C , \AZ"Arial Regular +##C , \AZ"Arial Regular +##C , \AZ"Arial Regular +##C , \AZ"Arial Regular +##C , \AZ"Arial Regular +##)?  9׿aQ 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ f" dddddd$   /.+%#13# 5F/O, \AZ"Arial RegularO     #   @#  Q QO, \AZ"Arial RegularOFromtheEtaSolutionWPC8XX81%XX81%3'XXXX,,,,9H("xi/#2/#C , \AZ"Arial Regular +YC xx, \AZ"Arial Regular +#C , \AZ"Arial Regular +#C , \AZ"Arial Regular +#C , \AZ"Arial Regular +#C , \AZ"Arial Regular +#)?  Z9׿aQ 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ f" dddddd$   /#-)*+%'153Y //O, \AZ"Arial RegularO        @Y  Q QO, \AZ"Arial RegularOWhilethewidespreadsignificantrainfallovercentralandsouthernKSoccurredgivenlargescale,persistentmoistureinflowandstrongisentropiclift,thebandofheaviestrainfall(inthepurpleandyellowcolors)appearedtocoincidewithabandoflow-levelfrontogeneticforcingbeneathstrongupperleveldivergence.WPCXX81%XX81%3'XXXX,,,,9H("20 *#2 *#C , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LYC , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LYC , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LYC , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LYC , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LYC , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LY)?  9׿aQ 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ f" dddddd$    *#%`L  4 )#O, \AZ"Arial RegularO     `L   @Y  Q QO, \AZ"Arial RegularO RainfallforEvent.+%19׿3aQ ` **  WPCXX81%XX81%3'XXXX,,,,9h(z "u/"2u/"C , \AZ"Arial Regular +YC xx, \AZ"Arial Regular +#C , \AZ"Arial Regular +#C , \AZ"Arial Regular +#C , \AZ"Arial Regular +#C , \AZ"Arial Regular +#)?  Z9׿aQ 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ f" dddddd$   u/"*+%'13Y +:/UO, \AZ"Arial RegularO        @Y  Q QO, \AZ"Arial RegularONotehowthebandofveryheavyrainfall(shownonpreviousslide)coincideswith850mbthermalgradient(andtheta-egradient),ratherthantheaxisofhighesttheta-e.WPCXX81%XX81%3'XXXX,,,,9h(z "20. {&#2. {&#C , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LYC , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LYC , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LYC , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LYC , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LYC , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LY)?  9׿aQ 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ f" dddddd$   . {&#%`L f 4 %#O, \AZ"Arial RegularO     `L   @Y  Q QO, \AZ"Arial RegularO 850mbreview.+%19׿3aQ `g. {&{& .  WPCXX81%XX81%3'XXXX,,,,9h(z "iuh/"2uh/"C , \AZ"Arial Regular +YC xx, \AZ"Arial Regular +#C , \AZ"Arial Regular +#C , \AZ"Arial Regular +#C , \AZ"Arial Regular +#C , \AZ"Arial Regular +#)?  Z9׿aQ 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ f" dddddd$   uh/"*+%'13Y +h:/]O, \AZ"Arial RegularO        @Y  Q QO, \AZ"Arial RegularOSurfacefieldsweremisleading,astheywerenotakeyfactorinthisevent.Despitethelackofsurface-basedCAPEoversouthernKS,elevatedinstabilitywassufficientforconvection.Also,theaxisofheavyrainfallcoincidedwithan850mbboundary,ratherthananear-surfaceboundary.f  O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWPC XX81%XX81%3'XXXX,,,,9h(z "20  '#2  '#C , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LYC , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LYC , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LYC , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LYC , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LYC , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LY)?  9׿aQ 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ f" dddddd$     '#%`L fj 4 W&#O, \AZ"Arial RegularO     `L   @Y  Q QO, \AZ"Arial RegularO SurfaceReview.+%19׿3aQ `g  ' '  WPCoXX81%XX81%3'XXXX,,,,9H("&u/"2u/"C @@, \AZ"Arial Regular +YC xx, \AZ"Arial Regular +#C , \AZ"Arial Regular +#C , \AZ"Arial Regular +#C , \AZ"Arial Regular +#C , \AZ"Arial Regular +#)?  Z9׿aQ 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ f" dddddd$   u/"-)*+%'153Y +:/%O, \AZ"Arial RegularO        @Y  Q QO, \AZ"Arial RegularO@@@Asyoumayhaveguessed,thefloodeventwasthesameoneasinSectionI...theHalloweenFloodof1998insouthernKansas.WPCXX81%XX81%3'XXXX,,,,9H("2R/#2R/#C , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LYC , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LYC , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LYC , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LYC , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LYC , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LY)?  9׿aQ 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ f" dddddd$   R/#%`L er/#O, \AZ"Arial RegularO     `L   @Y  Q QO, \AZ"Arial RegularO SectionII.FloodWarningExercise.+%19׿3aQ `fR//?R?WPCZ XX81%XX81%3'XXXX,,,,9"w/2w/C , \AZ"Arial Regular +YC , \AZ"Arial Regular +#C , \AZ"Arial Regular +#C , \AZ"Arial Regular +#C , \AZ"Arial Regular +#C , \AZ"Arial Regular +#)?  Z9׿aQ 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ f" dddddd$   w/-*+%'153Y -;/O, \AZ"Arial RegularO        @Y  Q QO, \AZ"Arial RegularOThefollowingwerethedesiredresponsestothequestionsinthisexercise:f  O, \AZ"Arial RegularOf  O, \AZ"Arial RegularO#1:Noproductneeded(nofloodingreported),thoughanUrban/SmallStreamFloodAdvisorywouldhavebeenokay.f  O, \AZ"Arial RegularO#2:Urban/SmallStreamFloodAdvisory(asrainfalltotalsweregettingclosetoFFG.AFlashFloodWarningcouldnotberuledout(andwouldturnouttobeanexcellentwarningwithleadtime...see#3).f  O, \AZ"Arial RegularO#3:Bythispoint,aFlashFloodWarningisnecessary.SignificantstreetfloodingisoccurringinWichita,andsmallstreamfloodingislikelyinoutlyingareas.WPCXX81%XX81%3'XXXX,,,,9" R/#2R/#C , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LYC , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LYC , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LYC , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LYC , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LYC , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LY)?  9׿aQ 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ f" dddddd$   R/#%`L e: /#O, \AZ"Arial RegularO     `L   @Y  Q QO, \AZ"Arial RegularO ResponsestoQuestions.+%19׿3aQ `fR// R WPC XX81%XX81%3'XXXX,,,,9"uO/"2uO/"C , \AZ"Arial Regular +YC xx, \AZ"Arial Regular +#C , \AZ"Arial Regular +#C , \AZ"Arial Regular +#C , \AZ"Arial Regular +#C , \AZ"Arial Regular +#)?  Z9׿aQ 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ f" dddddd$   uO/"-.)*+%'153Y +O:/O, \AZ"Arial RegularO        @Y  Q QO, \AZ"Arial RegularO#4:Whileaflashfloodwarningcertainlyseemsappropriate,wearegettingtothepointwherethismayendupbeingaprolongedfloodevent.Assuch,thewarningmayneedtobeextendedintheformofaFloodWarning.f  O, \AZ"Arial RegularO#5:Whilethereisnocertainanswerhere,itispossibleweareseeingthereflectionofafrontogeneticcirculationoversouth-centralKS...certainlyaninterestingfeatureonradar.f  O, \AZ"Arial RegularO#6:FloodWarningshouldbecontinuedassmallstreamsarelikelyoutoftheirbanks.WPCXX81%XX81%3'XXXX,,,,9"VR/#2R/#C , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LYC , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LYC , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LYC , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LYC , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LYC , \AZ"Arial Regular +`LY)?  9׿aQ 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ f" dddddd$   R/#%`L e: /#O, \AZ"Arial RegularO     `L   @Y  Q QO, \AZ"Arial RegularO ResponsestoQuestions.+%19׿3aQ `fR// R &,qRq [WPC*qXX81%z 2+3'XXXXKKKK ? ///333???OOO___fffooof1?O/_??ߟ߿c3f3&f3?LU`l w#'*-/257:=T bjs({3=GQ[s3&?1L; UFaQl[xfp{#',04̳9׿Q.V5b;lAvGLT ` h o rux|(-8DOZfq|3fH uUb#p/:EP\fuɒџزf3uPYcl v  *D_yf(u/5;AG L R X ^!l4zH[ofu    1%MAj^z=.O;`LrVcp̙ܥ$DYނB(#G-)L20P76U<=ZAC_FJdLPiQWmV]r[cw`j|epjwo}tufp{lws}yź3">)L3$U8*`@/lG5wO:V@^EoZn̲9_$*egj ;@P2,/KK  $  $$84&,$$$$44?)D4H@44G??_HPTTLdN_dld_tl___dopt  tLdd  * T$/$??D?TTDTDLDLllTDLD_T?Dd_ttdTd_dTT`L`TlDDllTT_TLT__T_dtlodll___li_nTLdYdhlyxtt__d_ddltllltiylg_dddtdttptlltƄltʌ"(/6?OV44L44LD_LLDTTLLLT_Tltt Lll "&/dDt t!( "$&,/$:4B?FD 4 $4,?,,?D$4D4?L4TdTL__T_   $$!//?D/L       $ghh} [2`Rzr3c RJ0bz 6cn_0_  V0_ dkt|0cR   mJ2a X uzn|t/O  a  J0O m hVp`J~##;<,# /J/ ,`a{ #J P/_J N 3j_ xJJ3tz Y`JRJ  0JZvtc _Rt ~ # #B /ҘB* ^ ,` ia #,,xg59#@J J Jdz zGJcl z0   J W~lI o_\nez4 J lxy{zJGy~Jei R1!  JNV]m遗RJJN/J  J J O}뗚dJkh R0"J   J I {WVhaRO2 J JJ  RRRJ JPZ}b`Jbi [gcT/JJJ  RJh`0J4 f`J0J ;jbylVgwO0J1bJj oo2J=kOkl_q0 J J1 ad n{y/J 6bhuydu uy1J8p P`ffy|jtJ2J 9u qzJ?% 0)F| 5!3t x/# 1 _lu0"wi